1. The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. 2008 Cambridge University Press. (with Raymond Duch), winner of the Gregory M. Luebbert award for the best book in comparative politics in 2007 or 2008.


  1. A Bias-Corrected Estimator for the Crosswise Model with Inattentive Respondents. 2021. Political Analysis. 111-15. doi:10.1017/pan.2021.43.(with Yuki Atsusaka)
  2. Attributing Policy Influence under Coalition Governance. 2021. American Political Science Review 115: 252-268. (online appendix) (with David Fortunato, Nick Lin, and Mathias Tromborg)
  3. Causal Interaction and Effect Modification: Same Model, Different Concepts. 2021. Political Science Research and Methods. (with Luke Keele)
  4. Party Government and Political Information. 2021. Legislative Studies Quarterly. (with David Fortunato)
  5. The Causal Interpretation of Estimated Associations in Regression Models. 2019. Political Science Research and Methods. (with Luke Keele)
  6. An Audit of Political Behavior Research. 2018. Sage Open, July-September, p. 1-14. (with Lynn Vavreck, Simon Jackman, Jamie Druckman, Joshua Robison, Johnathan Katz)
  7. Gamson’s Law and Voters’ Perceptions of Portfolio Allocation. 2017. European Journal of Political Research. 56 (4) pp. 912-940 (with Nick Lin, Mathias Tromborg, and David Fortunato)
  8. Voters, Responsibility Attribution, and Support Parties in Parliamentary Democracies. 2017. British Journal of Political Science. (with Mathias Tromborg and David Fortunato)
  9. Measuring Knowledge of Parties’ Legislative Seat Shares. 2017. Political Science Research and Methods (with Seonghui Lee and Agustina Haime)
  10. An Expanded Empirical Evaluation of the Cross-National Comparability of Survey Measures of Political Interest Using Anchoring Vignettes: A Research Note. 2016. Electoral Studies (with Seonghui Lee and Nick Lin)
  11. Heuristics in Context. 2016. Political Science Research and Methods (with David Fortunato)
  12. Survey Experiments with Google Consumer Surveys: Promise and Pitfalls for Academic Research in Social Science. 2016. Political Analysis. (With Bob Stein and Philip Santoso)
  13. Context, Heuristics, and Political Knowledge: Explaining Cross-National Variation in Citizens’ Left-Right Knowledge. 2016. Journal of Politics. (with David Fortunato and Greg Vonnahme)
  14. A Copula Approach to the Problem of Selection Bias in Models of Government Survival. 2015. Political Analysis 23(1): 42-58 (with Lanny Martin and Daina Chiba).
  15. Evaluating the Cross-National Comparability of Survey Measures of Political Interest Using Anchoring Vignettes. 2014. Electoral Studies. (with Seonghui Lee and Nick Lin)
  16. Responsibility Attribution for Collective Decision Makers.” 2014. American Journal of Political Science 59(2) (with Raymond Duch).
  17. The Meaning and Use of Subjective Perceptions in Studies of Economic Voting. 2013. Electoral Studies (with Raymond Duch).
  18. Performance Voting and Knowledge of Cabinet Composition. 2013. Electoral Studies (with David Fortunato).
  19. Voter Perceptions of Agenda Power and Attribution of Responsibility for Economic Performance. 2013. Electoral Studies (with Raymond Duch).
  20. Perceptions of Partisan Ideologies: The Effect of Coalition Participation. 2013. American Journal of Political Science (with David Fortunato). Replication Materials
  21. The Conditional Impact of Incumbency on Government Formation. 2010. American Political Science Review (with Lanny Martin).
  22. Context and Economic Expectations: When Do Voters Get it Right? 2010. British Journal of Political Science (with Raymond Duch).
  23. The Global Economy, Competency, and the Economic Vote. 2010. Journal of Politics 72(1): 1-19 (with Raymond Duch). Winner of the best paper in JOP; Winner of the best paper presented in the Political Economy Section of the APSA.
  24. Accessing the Magnitude of the Economic Vote over Time and Across Nations. 2006. Electoral Studies Vol. 25, no. 3, 528-47 (with Raymond Duch).
  25. Brain Activity in the Play of Dominant and Mixed Strategy Games. 2006. Political Psychology (with Rick Wilson and Geoffrey Potts), Vol. 27, no 3 pp. 459-478.
  26. Context and the Economic Vote: A Multi-Level Analysis. Political Analysis. 2005. Vol. 13, no. 4, 2005, pp. 387-409. (with Raymond Duch)
  27. The Economy as Context: Indirect Links between the Economy and Voters. 2003 In Han Dorussen, ed., The Changing Economic Voter. London: Routledge.
  28. The Cost of Ruling, Cabinet Duration, and the “Median Gap Model. Public Choice. 2002.
  29. The Economy and Policy Preference: A Fundamental Dynamic of Democratic Politics. 2001. American Journal of Political Science. Vol. 45, no. 3, pp. 620-633
  30. Cabinet Formation in Parliamentary Democracies. 2001. American Journal of Political Science. Vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 33-50. (with Lanny Martin) Replication Data
  31. Cabinet Terminations and Critical Events. American Political Science Review. Vol. 94, no. 3. September 2000, pp. 627-640. (with Daniel Diermeier)
  32. Do campaigns Matter? Testing for Cross-National Effects. British Journal of Political Science. Vol. 30, April, 2000 , pp. 217-235. (with Lynn Vavreck)
  33. Cabinet Survival and Competing Risks. American Journal of Political Science. vol.43 , no. 4 , October 1999, pp. 1051-1068. (with Daniel Diermeier) Replication Data
  34. “Defense Expenditures and Economic Growth In Israel: The Indirect Link.” Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 33, no. 3, 1996, pp. 341-353. (with Alex Mintz, Michael Ward, and Jordin Cohen)
  35. “Theories of Budgetary Tradeoffs.” Public Budgeting and Financial Management. 1995 (with Alex Mintz).
  36. “Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth, and the ‘Peace Dividend’: A Longitudinal Analysis of 103 Countries.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 39, No. 2, 1995, pp. 283-309 (with Alex Mintz).
  37. “Armament and Development: An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Military Spending on Economic Growth in Developing Countries.” in Chatterji, Jager, and Rima (eds.) The Economics of International Security: Essays in Honor of Jan Tinbergen, London: Palgrave. 1994 (with Alex Mintz).

Working Papers

  1. The Nature and Sources of Voters’ Beliefs about the Left-Right Positions of Political Parties” (with Seonghui Lee and Philip Santoso)
  2. Heuristics and Coalition Expectations” (with David Fortunato)
  3. Party Government and the Shape of American Political Knowledge (with David Fortunato)
  4. Political Knowledge in Coalitional Democracies” (with Nick Lin and David Fortunato)
  5. Institutionalization, New Concept and Methods” (with Keith Hamm, Andrew Spieglman, and Ronald Hedlund)
  6. “The Economy and Strategic Communication in Electoral Campaigns.” (with Guy Whitten and Laron Williams)